A Year of Unprecedented Turmoil in the Middle East
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2024: A Year of Unprecedented Turmoil in the Middle East
By any measure, 2024 was a year of unparalleled upheaval across Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, and the West Bank. Even in a region accustomed to cycles of conflict, the events of this year were staggering in their scale and intensity. From the devastating war in Gaza to the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, the seismic shifts reshaped the political and humanitarian landscape, leaving millions grappling with profound loss and uncertainty.
Gaza: The Killing Fields of 2024
The Gaza Strip endured its most catastrophic year in living memory, marked by relentless bombardment, mass displacement, and a spiraling humanitarian crisis. Since October 2023, more than 45,000 Palestinians, most of them women and children, have been killed. Another 100,000 have been injured, many suffering life-altering wounds. The United Nations reported that over 6% of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million had been killed or injured by October 2024, a staggering toll in such a short time.
The destruction of essential infrastructure further compounded the suffering. Nearly 70% of Gaza’s water and sanitation facilities were damaged or destroyed, including all wastewater treatment plants, desalination facilities, and reservoirs. The near-total blockade of aid into Gaza exacerbated the crisis. The UN revealed that 91 attempts to deliver aid to the northern Gaza Strip between October and November were either denied or impeded by Israeli forces. Starvation and looming famine now grip much of the territory.
The International Criminal Court responded by issuing arrest warrants in November for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes. However, international accountability has remained elusive, as Israel’s actions continue under the shield of U.S. diplomatic and material support.
Syria: The Fall of Assad
In a dramatic turn of events, Syrian President Bashar Assad fled the country in late November, ending his brutal 24-year rule and a 13-year civil war that left hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced. His regime crumbled under a surprise attack by Turkish-backed Syrian factions on Aleppo and surrounding areas.
The attack followed years of stalled political processes, despite the framework provided by UN Security Council Resolution 2254. The weakening of Assad’s key allies, including Iran and Hezbollah, and the distractions faced by Russia due to its other global entanglements, created the conditions for his ouster. The new Islamist government in Damascus now faces the daunting task of rebuilding a devastated nation and uniting a fractured populace.
Lebanon: Hezbollah Weakened
Lebanon saw a temporary reprieve with a 60-day ceasefire, but the country remained on edge as Israel launched a campaign targeting Hezbollah leadership. Israel’s strikes decimated Hezbollah’s command structure, undermining its grip on power. However, the civilian toll was immense, consistent with Israel’s controversial military doctrine that often disregards the distinction between combatants and civilians.
The fragile ceasefire now hinges on the full implementation of UNSC Resolution 1701, which mandates the withdrawal of all armed groups from southern Lebanon, except for UN and Lebanese security forces.
The West Bank: A Crisis Intensifies
The West Bank endured a surge in violence, as Israeli settlers and military forces escalated attacks on Palestinians, aiming to drive them off their land. Homes and farms were destroyed in what many observers called a campaign of dispossession. The Palestinian death toll climbed into the hundreds.
Saudi Arabia, alongside Norway, the Arab League, and the EU, sought to revive the two-state solution through the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution. However, progress remains slow, as the U.S. struggles to persuade Israel to participate meaningfully in the process.
Yemen: Peace Process in Limbo
Yemen’s UN-led peace efforts faltered in 2024, as the Houthis disrupted international maritime trade and launched attacks on civilian and military targets. Despite the clear parameters for resolution outlined in UNSC Resolution 2216, the conflict remains deadlocked.
Biden’s Final Weeks
As President Joe Biden’s term nears its end, his administration faces mounting criticism for its failure to curb Israel’s actions in Gaza or to make meaningful progress on broader Middle East crises. Analysts argue Biden still has time to take decisive action, including recognizing Palestinian statehood, sponsoring a UN resolution on a two-state solution, and enforcing arms transfer laws. These measures could salvage his legacy and offer a path toward de-escalation in the region.
A Region on Edge
As 2025 begins, the Middle East remains engulfed in uncertainty. Gaza’s humanitarian catastrophe shows no signs of abating, Syria’s political future hangs in the balance, Lebanon’s fragile ceasefire remains under threat, and the West Bank continues to simmer with violence. With a Republican administration poised to take office in Washington, the geopolitical calculus in the region may soon shift dramatically. Whether this brings renewed diplomacy or entrenched conflict remains to be seen.
Even by the turbulent standards of the Middle East, 2024 was earth-shattering in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon and the West Bank. In Gaza, tens of thousands were killed and millions made homeless. Impunity for war crimes and crimes against humanity emboldened perpetrators to commit ever more gruesome atrocities. In Syria, Bashar Assad was forced to flee after a disastrous 24-year rule capped by a bloody 13-year civil war. In Lebanon, Israel decimated Hezbollah’s leadership and weakened its grip on power. Consistent with Israel’s indiscriminate battle doctrine, there was a huge civilian toll.
The most catastrophic event in 2024 was the killing fields of Gaza and this looks set to continue into 2025. More than 45,000 Palestinians have been killed there since October 2023, mostly women and children. About 100,000 more have been injured, some maimed. Many others are missing or buried under the rubble of their destroyed homes.
In October, the World Health Organization estimated that more than 6 percent of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million had been either killed or injured.
The UN estimates that nearly 70 percent of Gaza’s water and sanitation plants have been destroyed or damaged. That includes all five of the territory’s wastewater treatment facilities۔
, plus desalination plants, sewage pumping stations, wells and reservoirs. Nearly all of Gaza’s inhabitants have been forcibly displaced, some multiple times.
Having taken control of all entry points into the Gaza Strip, Israel has severely impeded the flow of aid. For example, out of the 91 attempts the UN made to deliver aid to the besieged north of Gaza between Oct. 6 and Nov. 25, 82 were denied and nine impeded. The conditions for survival are diminishing for the 65,000 to 75,000 people estimated to remain in the north. Starvation has already taken a toll in many parts of Gaza and famine is looming.
The most catastrophic event in 2024 was the killing fields of Gaza and this looks set to continue into 2025.
Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg
In addition to deliberately starving the Palestinians of Gaza and forcibly displacing them en masse, which are war crimes under the Geneva Conventions, Israel has engaged in other grave breaches of international humanitarian law, including indiscriminate bombing and the targeting of unarmed civilians, hospitals, schools, refugee camps and shelters. It is for these and other war crimes and crimes against humanity that the International Criminal Court in November issued warrants to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
The Israeli government, led by Netanyahu and populated by some of the basest ministers Israel and the region have ever had, engaged in this genocidal campaign because it was assured by the full support of the US. Although the Biden administration frequently voiced disagreement with some of Netanyahu’s extreme tactics, it continued to support him materially and shield him from UN censure.
President Joe Biden, the consummate politician who has spent more than 50 years in politics, failed to use his tremendous leverage to temper Israel’s unhinged behavior in Gaza, let alone bring a halt to the war. His administration also failed to persuade Israel to allow aid to flow to starving Palestinians.
It was argued that it would be difficult for Biden to discipline Israel during the US election campaign. But once the elections were over, the administration continued its lackadaisical approach of letting Israel off the hook every time the UN tried to improve the situation inside Gaza.
Many have argued that Biden still has enough time and power to do the right thing before he leaves office on Jan. 20. Jonah Blank, now with the RAND Corporation, served for 10 years as a Biden adviser. He wrote that there are three steps Biden could take during his final weeks in office that would “mitigate Palestinian suffering and preserve the possibility of a two-state solution — which would also be the best way to solidify Israel’s security in the long run.”
First, he should recognize Palestinian statehood. Second, he should sponsor a resolution on a two-state solution at the UN Security Council. Third, he should enforce existing US legislation on arms transfers. These three actions are within Biden’s executive authority and could change the course of the crisis in the Middle East, “which is hurtling toward catastrophe,” as Blank made clear.
Such actions could salvage Biden’s legacy, which is now marred not only by the failure of his Middle East policy but also his contribution to the Democratic Party losing the presidential and congressional elections. This was one of the most pivotal moments of 2024.
According to US election experts, Biden’s initial insistence on running for reelection, against the better judgment of Democratic Party elders, led to that loss. After his disastrous performance in the presidential debate with Donald Trump, Biden was urged to relinquish his bid for a second term. He reluctantly agreed, but it was too late to salvage the Democratic Party’s election campaign.
The Democrats blamed him for their resounding defeat as the Republicans, led by Trump, trounced them everywhere to get what might be called — in the language of racing — a trifecta or even a superfecta. Republicans convincingly flipped the White House and the Senate and retained their majority in the House of Representatives. They already had a solid majority in the Supreme Court, thus rounding out the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government. From Jan. 20, they will be in a position to change the face of the federal government for a long time.
For at least the next four years, America’s allies, partners and adversaries need to deal with this changed landscape in Washington. But for the next few weeks, Biden is in control and he can make history if he chooses to do so. A permanent ceasefire is needed in Gaza to start the process of rebuilding and reunifying the Strip with the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority, instead of breakaway factions.
In addition to the Gaza war, there are other crises that the White House needs to address during the weeks leading up to Trump’s inauguration to make sure that there are no gaps in US regional policy on the changing of the guard at the White House and Congress. They include the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Fortunately, in each of these four crises, there is consensus on what needs to be done and UNSC resolutions to go by.
First and most urgent is the crisis in the West Bank, where the Israeli government and settlers have increased their attacks on Palestinians with the clear aim of driving them off their land. Hundreds of Palestinians have been killed and their homes and farms destroyed or burned down.
Clearly, the only way to defuse the West Bank crisis is through ending the occupation and establishing a Palestinian state. Already, about 150 countries have recognized Palestine as a state and there is a clear consensus on the parameters of this solution in UN resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative.
In September, Saudi Arabia, together with Norway, the Arab League and the EU, launched the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution. The first meeting of the alliance was held in Riyadh on Oct. 30 and attended by 90 states and organizations, while the second meeting was held in Brussels on Nov. 28 and the third is planned for January in Oslo. The US took part in these meetings and expressed support for the alliance. It needs to do more to persuade Israel to join.
Second, in Lebanon, the agreement of a 60-day temporary ceasefire was a good start, but it needs to be solidified by the implementation of UNSC Resolution 1701 of 2006, which called for the withdrawal of all forces, save for the UN Interim Force in Lebanon and the Lebanese security forces, from Lebanese territory south of the Litani River.
Third, the surprise attack in late November by Turkiye-backed Syrian groups on Aleppo and the surrounding areas ended in Assad’s ouster and the installation of a new Islamist government in Damascus. In large part, the attack was motivated by the impasse in the UN and Arab League-mediated political process.
In December 2015, the UNSC unanimously adopted Resolution 2254, which set forth a roadmap to resolve the crisis in Syria. Talks over its implementation stalled because the Assad regime stopped cooperating with UN Special Envoy Gere Pederson. Instead, the civil war raged, claiming the lives of hundreds of thousands and leaving half of Syria’s population homeless.
In May 2023, the Arab League reached an agreement in Amman with the Assad regime to resume the political process, but it later ignored the Arab League’s pleas to live up to that agreement.
The weakening of Assad’s close allies, Iran and Hezbollah, and preoccupation of Russia, Assad’s third ally, contributed to the decision by the militants to launch their successful blitz. In October, Assad’s forces again bombed the rebel-held Idlib province, probably hastening their decision to mount their counterattack.
Things in Syria are now in flux, but the new rulers appear to be eager to reassure Syrians and the outside world that they intend to have an inclusive government focused on rebuilding Syria’s devastated economy.
Fourth, in Yemen, the UN-led peace process has also stalled, as the Houthis have chosen to improve their political standing by disrupting international maritime trade and attacking ships. Here too, there is a clear UNSC resolution (No. 2216 of 2015, which was adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter) that sets out the main parameters for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
To its credit, the Biden administration has been working on all these issues. But time is of the essence. It needs to take advantage of its remaining days in office to finish at least some of them, so as to hand over to the new administration a coherent response.