Impact of Saudi Arabia and Iran relation on middle east countries.
Saudi Iran
The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Middle East has been marked by tensions and rivalries, and their ties have had significant impacts on the region. It’s important to note that the situation may have evolved since then. Better ties between the countries are fruitful for the middle eastern countries. Some Historical points are worth mention.
Proxy Conflicts: Saudi Arabia and Iran are major regional powers with differing geopolitical interests and visions for the Middle East. Their competition for influence has often played out through proxy conflicts in various countries, such as Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon. These proxy conflicts have exacerbated regional instability and resulted in humanitarian crises.
Sectarian Tensions: The rivalry between Saudi Arabia, a predominantly Sunni Muslim country, and Iran, a predominantly Shia Muslim country, has deepened sectarian tensions in the Middle East. Conflicts in countries like Iraq and Bahrain have been perceived as manifestations of this sectarian divide, contributing to divisions and violence.
Yemeni Civil War: One of the most significant impacts of Saudi-Iran ties on the Middle East has been seen in the Yemeni Civil War. Saudi Arabia has led a coalition of Arab states supporting the Yemeni government against Houthi rebels, who are believed to be backed by Iran. The conflict has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis in Yemen, with widespread suffering and displacement.
Regional Power Struggle: The competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran for regional dominance has led to heightened tensions and rivalries among their allies and partners. Various countries and groups in the region have aligned themselves with one or the other, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.
Oil and Energy Dynamics: Both Saudi Arabia and Iran are major oil-producing nations, and their rivalry has influenced global oil prices and energy security dynamics. Any escalation of tensions between the two countries can potentially impact oil markets and international energy stability.
Diplomatic Isolation: The tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have led to a lack of diplomatic relations between the two countries. This isolation has made it challenging to address regional issues through dialogue and negotiation, further escalating conflicts.
Regional Diplomacy and Mediation: The Saudi-Iran rivalry has also affected the dynamics of regional diplomacy. Other countries in the Middle East and international powers have had to navigate this rivalry and attempt to mediate conflicts to prevent further escalation.
It is crucial to understand that the situation is complex and constantly evolving. The impacts of Saudi-Iran ties on the Middle East can change depending on geopolitical developments, shifts in alliances, and the actions taken by both countries and other regional actors. The Middle East has historically been a volatile region, and the Saudi-Iran rivalry has played a significant role in shaping its geopolitical landscape. Efforts to de-escalate tensions and find avenues for diplomatic resolution remain essential for stability and peace in the region.
In context of above, both countries are showing positive signs in their relationship during the year 2023. As per the report published on reuters.com in June 23 (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-iranian-ties-history-ups-downs-2023-06-06/) “Iran reopened its embassy in Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh on Tuesday, Saudi media reported, months after the two regional rivals agreed to end years of antagonism under a Chinese-brokered deal.” Re-opening of Iranian embassy in Saudi Arabia is good sign for both the countries as well as middle eastern region as Yemen and Syria war was mainly fueled by the rivalry of both the countries better ties between the two arises a hope of light in Yemen and Syria.
China has played a vital role for improved relationship between the two. It was a time in 1999 when – Saudi King Fahd congratulated Iranian President Mohammad Khatami on his election victory in 2001, saying it is an endorsement of his reformist policy. Khatami had worked for rapprochement with Riyadh after his first landslide win in 1997. Khatami visits Saudi Arabia, the first such trip since 1979. Better relations are sealed with a security pact in April 2001.
But between 2003 to 2012 tension between the was on its peak. The 2003 U.S.-led invasion that topples Saddam Hussein in Iraq empowers the country’s Shi’ite majority and results in a shift in its political alignment towards Iran.
- The 2005 assassination of Lebanon’s Rafik al-Hariri, a close Saudi ally, sets the stage for a power struggle in Beirut pitting Iran and its allies on the one hand, including Syria, against U.S.-allied, Sunni-led Gulf Arab states on the other. Lebanon falls increasingly under the sway of the heavily armed, Iranian-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah.
Some 15 years later, a U.N.-backed court convicts three Hezbollah members in absentia over the Hariri killing. The group denies any role, describing the tribunal as a tool in the hands of its enemies. - The 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah hardens Saudi suspicions that Tehran is creating new regional alliances threatening Saudi interests.
- Iran’s disputed nuclear energy programme deepens Saudi fears that Tehran, under Khatami’s hardline nationalist successor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is bent on dominating the Gulf region.
- According to a WikiLeaks cable, Saudi King Abdullah tells his own diplomats in 2008 that he wants the United States to “cut off the head of the snake”.
ARAB SPRING - Saudi Arabia looks on in horror as pro-democracy uprisings spread eastward from Tunisia and Egypt to the Gulf. Protests in Bahrain are seen as a red line because of fears the island’s Shi’ite majority will take power and ally with Iran.
- Saudi troops help put down Bahraini Shi’ite unrest at the request of Bahrain’s Sunni royal family.
- Saudi Arabia accuses some Shi’ites in its Eastern Province of cooperating with a foreign state – meaning Iran – to sow dissent, after clashes between police and Shi’ites.
- The United States says it has uncovered an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington. Riyadh said the evidence was overwhelming and Tehran would pay a price. Iran rejects the report as a fabrication aimed at driving a wedge between Tehran and Saudi Arabia.
SYRIAN WAR - Moderate Hassan Rouhani is elected Iranian president in June 2013 and turns Iran’s hitherto confrontational foreign policy in a conciliatory direction. Iran strikes an interim deal with big powers in November to limit its nuclear activity. Relations between Iran and most Gulf Arab neighbours improve.
- The Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council calls in December for good neighbourly relations with Iran based on “non-interference in internal affairs”.
- But Iranian-Saudi ties remain icy, with their regional power struggle reflected in the Syrian civil war. Riyadh is a leading supporter of Sunni rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is a close ally of Tehran.
- In 2015, Saudi Arabia intervenes in Yemen at the head of a Western-backed coalition against the Houthi movement after the Iran-aligned group ousts the internationally recognised government from power in the capital, Sanaa. The war later turns into a years-long military stalemate.
A new start with Chinese touch - On Sept. 14, 2019, Saudi Arabia blames Iran for attacks on its oil installations that knocked out half of the kingdom’s supply. Iran denies involvement; Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group claims responsibility for the attacks.
- On Jan. 3, 2020, Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian military commander, is killed in a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad.
- On April 9, 2021, Iran and Saudi Arabia hold their first direct talks since the rupture, hosted by Baghdad. Between April 2021 and September 2022, four rounds of talks are held, mostly mediated by Iraq and Oman.
- Iran pulls out of the talks on March 13, 2022, ahead of a planned fifth round, a day after mass executions in Saudi Arabia that activists said included 41 Shi’ite Muslims.
- Iran and Saudi Arabia hold a fifth round of talks on April 21, 2022.
- On Oct. 19, 2022, the top adviser to Iran’s Khamenei calls for reopening of the Saudi and Iranian embassies.
- Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Saudi Arabia on Dec. 9, 2022, and holds talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
- Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visits China on Feb. 16, 2023, to meet Xi.
- On March 11, 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia agree to re-establish relations in deal brokered by China.
- The Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers meet in China on April 6, their first formal encounter in more than seven years.
Syria
The Iran-Saudi deal comes three years into the longest ceasefire in Syria’s civil war. Front lines across the country have stabilised since March 2020, when a deal brokered by Russia and Türkiye ended the regime’s offensive in the last rebel bastion, Idlib province in the north west. The ceasefire left space for the rebel faction Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (a former al-Qaeda affiliate that has cut ties with the global movement but remains internationally designated as a terrorist group) to consolidate its control over Idlib. Turkish-backed factions – the remnants of the Syrian opposition that previously enjoyed Arab and Western support – remain confined to a strip of land along the Turkish border. Meanwhile the U.S.-backed, predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces in north-eastern Syria continue their anti-Islamic State campaign while engaging in tit-for-tat skirmishes with Türkiye.
The Iranian-Saudi deal looks as though it may speed up normalisation of relations between the Syrian regime and some Arab governments. (crisisgroup.org)
Better ties between the countries are not fruitful only for middle eastern countries but also for whole world.
